For 80 years, the president’s party has almost always lost House seats in midterm elections, a pattern that makes the 2026 congressional outlook clear

As the 2026 midterm elections edge closer, most people know the party that controls the White House is likely to lose seats in Congress. They usually do not know just how entrenched that pattern is.

By: Robert A. Strong, University of Virginia, The Conversation

Outlets: The Conversation

Published: January 19, 2026

Words: 1,086

Last Updated: 2 months ago

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By Robert A. Strong, University of Virginia

Now that the 2026 midterm elections are less than a year away, public interest in where things stand is on the rise. Of course, in a democracy no one knows the outcome of an election before it takes place, despite what the pollsters may predict.

Nevertheless, it is common for commentators and citizens to revisit old elections to learn what might be coming in the ones that …

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