How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets

While media outlets are signing deals with Polymarket and Kalshi for their insights into the wisdom of crowds, gamblers are pouncing on opportunities to wager on geopolitics and celebrity weddings.

By: Parker Bach, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, The Conversation

Outlets: The Conversation

Published: March 31, 2026

Words: 1,615

Last Updated: 4 months ago

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By Parker Bach, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Though prediction markets have been legal in the U.S. for less than 18 months, they can’t stop making news and making money.

On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, users can stake real money on just about anything, from the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election to when Taylor Swift will get married.

But this isn’t simple entertainment: In theory, …

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