Opinion: I study polling failures — this time, pollsters were mostly right, if not precise

By: W. Joseph Campbell

Outlets: Kansas Reflector

Published: November 7, 2026

Words: 778

Last Updated: 2 days, 13 hours ago

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The crucial test for preelection polls is whether they broadly indicate how voters are likely to decide. By that fundamental measure, the 2026 midterm polls largely succeeded in anticipating outcomes on Election Day.

If somewhat tentatively, the polls overall had been signaling important gains for Democrats. That is what voting produced.

It was, perhaps, polling’s most reassuring performance since accurately anticipating Barack Obama’s presidential election in 2008, an outcome cited in my …

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