Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored

The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is the latest entry in an old and lethal tradition in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe and what war delivers.

By: Monica Duffy Toft, Tufts University, The Conversation

Outlets: The Conversation

Published: March 20, 2026

Words: 1,512

Last Updated: 19 hours, 16 minutes ago

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By Monica Duffy Toft, Tufts University

Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one.

The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is not an anomaly. It is the latest entry in one of the oldest and most lethal traditions in international politics: …

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